Download Agent-Based Computational Demography: Using Simulation to by Francesco C. Billari, Alexia Prskawetz PDF

By Francesco C. Billari, Alexia Prskawetz

Agent-Based Computational Demography (ABCD) goals at beginning a brand new movement of analysis between social scientists whose pursuits lie in figuring out demographic behaviour. The publication takes a micro-demographic (agent-based) viewpoint and illustrates the possibilities of laptop simulation as an relief in idea construction. The chapters of the booklet, written via top specialists both in demography or in agent-based modelling, tackle a number of key questions. Why can we want agent-based computational demography? How can ABCD be utilized to the research of migrations, relations demography, and old demography? What are the peculiarities of agent-based versions as utilized to the demography of human populations? ABCD is of curiosity to all scientists attracted to learning demographic behaviour, in addition to to machine scientists and modellers who're searching for a promising box of application.

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Kuzne ts, Easterl in) criticized it prec isely on the gro unds that co mparative empirica l research showed no strong or reg ular relationship between populati on growth rate s 24 Burch, T. K. and economic development. But this in no way diminishes the importance of the ir work. Like all goo d models, their simulation of population growth and development provided cru cial insights into mechanism at work and a systematic framework for discus sion and further research . In addition , their analysis almost certainly provides a relevant explanation as to why some nations with rapid population growth - then and now - have shown so little economic progress.

L) . ll ). I ), that is, progress towards und erstanding. Hobcraft's diagnos is: . . the main prob lem for comparative analysis, over and above the sheer scale of data manipulation , has always been the rather limit ed number of explanat ory variab les which are sufficient ly standardized and accorded enough cred ibility to be collec ted in every country. 2). He see ms to agr ee with Gri ffith Feen ey, who earlier [17 ] noted that the sur veys in que stion contained a lot of data but not necessaril y the right data for testing or developing explanations and theor y.

4 30 Burch, T. K. gression model) and a measured output O. A mechanism can be seen as a systematic set of statements that pro vide a plausible account of how I and 0 are linked to on e ano ther (compare Meehan 's 's ystem ' ). The approach is explicitly contrasted with the covering-law model of explanation advocated by Hempel, Nagel and their followers. 8) . Fin all y, there is no attempt to prove that a model is true in the sense of empirically valid : Th e choice betw een the infinitely man y analytical model s that can be used for de scribing and anal yzing a given social situation can never be guided by the ir truth value, because all models by their ver y nature distort the reality they are intended to des cribe.

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