By Stanley K. Smith
This publication specializes in the technique and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main primary information resources and alertness innovations for 4 forms of projection equipment: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the parts of inhabitants development, assets of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the improvement of overview standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection equipment and can pay designated consciousness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors supply sensible suggestions to demographers, planners, industry analysts, and others referred to as directly to build country and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing particular populations, detailed conditions, and insufficient or unreliable information. They describe concepts for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., college enrollment, households). They speak about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in a global of competing calls for and restricted assets. This finished e-book will offer readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main generic inhabitants projection tools, but in addition of the numerous complicated concerns affecting their building, interpretation, overview, and use.
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Extra info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Census Bureau 2002). They collected information on the number of free white males older and younger than age 16, free white females of any age, all other free persons, and slaves. Most American Indians were not counted at all. Although slaves were counted, they were given a weight of only 3/5 for apportionment purposes (the famous 3/5 compromise). The marshals were not trained as census enumerators and did not follow any consistent procedures or even use a uniform questionnaire. It took them 18 months to visit all the households and tally the results (Anderson 1988, p.
It affects the demand for public education, healthcare, and nursing home care. It affects the housing market, the labor market, and the marriage market. It has tremendous implications for Social Security, Medicare, and private pension systems. No other characteristic is more valuable for a wide variety of planning and analytical purposes than age composition. Sex composition is also important for many purposes. In fact, these two characteristics are often combined to reflect the age-sex structure of the population (Weeks 2012, p.
Journal of Planning Education and Research, 27, 417–430. Shang, H. L. (2012). Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach. Demographic Research, 27, 593–644. Siegel, J. S. (2002). Applied demography. San Diego: Academic. Smith, E. (2007). Using a scenario approach: From business to regional futures. In L. D. Hopkins & M. A. ), Engaging the future (pp. 79–101). Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Smith, S. , & Sincich, T. (1992). Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternate population projections for states.